concept+15 XP
Implied Probability
Implied Probability
Every set of odds implies a probability. Converting odds to probability lets you compare the bookmaker's estimate against your own assessment.
American Odds to Probability
Positive: 100 / (odds + 100) Negative: |odds| / (|odds| + 100)
Finding Value
If you believe a team has a 55% chance of winning but the implied probability is only 48%, you have found a +EV (positive expected value) bet.
Value betting is the cornerstone of profitable sports betting. Only bet when your estimated probability exceeds the implied probability.
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